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Could The Yellow Vest (Gilets Jaunes) Movement Lead To A Frexit?

22 Nov 2019 - Market News

Just last year Gilets-Jaunes threaten another revolution exactly a half-century after May 68. Protests were initially sparked by fuel tax hike, but have turned into revolutionary movement against the French elite.

The story of the French working-class revolt against authoritarianism isn’t new, yet somehow gilets-jaunes, despite lacking any prominent leader, has managed to threaten one of the strongest monarchical presidential systems in the world. The question is how the Yellow Vest (gilets-jaunes) movement is any different than previous French movements. What exactly can it achieve?

Gilets-Jaunes: rise and resilience of the ignored

The reasons behind the yearlong protests and demonstrations go far deeper than price hikes. For decades, the blue-collar French population had slowly been drifting away from mainstream France. The sense of alienation from the decision making by the elite and the effects of those decisions in the form of decreased purchasing power and threats of unemployment is the story of these gilets jaunes since the 1980s. From the betrayal of Socialists, when Francois Mitterand’s government abandoned the socialist reforms to win the approval of Brussels into European integration of France, to blatant denial of democracy after the 2005 referendum, these decisions depict the exploitation of people by the ones in power.

All that anger and sense of detachment triggered tens of thousands of protesters into demonstrations all over the country. The increasingly unpopular restrictions and limitations added fuel to the fire and provided the people with something to protest against. What started by a change.org petition calling for fuel prices to be lowered quickly turned into a movement. A movement of people without any official spoke person or prominent leaders.

A populist agenda

The gilets jaunes aren’t alone in their demand for social justice and direct democracy. Mainstream parties like Rassemblement National (National Rally) are advocating Euroscepticism and making its agenda heard with more than 50% French turnout after 1999 in European Parliament Election 2019. The Patriots, found by the former RN vice president Florian Philippot, joined hands with Yellow Vests before the EU elections to create a populist bloc against the President Macron’s Liberal Front.

“The Patriots and the Yellow Citizens both agree that France will be unable to expand direct democracy, strive for social justice and boost purchasing power unless it frees itself from the iron collar of the European Union and exits the Eurozone.” said Phillpot on the ‘sovereignist alliance’ of both groups.

Although Macron’s government halted the fuel tax and also announced a cut in taxes to improve purchasing power, these measures may not be enough for the movement. What started as retaliatory protests has become much more than that - a populist movement with much higher goals. Macron denounced them as the ‘hate-filled crowd’ but then his government did announce tax cuts which today stand at a staggering 17 billion Euros.

The wave of protests against the status quo is not common across Europe. However, the draconian measures by French MPs to ban unauthorized protests and a violent response by the police depicts the conflict between the French Elite and the working class – or as Christophe Guilluy acknowledge them, ‘peripheral France’.  Heavy use of tear gas, non-lethal rubber bullets and arrests has added fuel to the fire. It has also left the so-called ‘liberal’ Macron establishment prone to fatal consequences.

Reforms or Frexit?

One year on gilets jaunes have had some victories while establishing itself into a comfortable position. However, with the movement calling for policy changes now, and not for financial relief, anything can happen. Nevertheless, the impact of the movement on France is self-evident. The Gilets Jaunes are no longer a detached majority. Populists became popular once more as has happened many a time before.

John Lichfield of The Independents writes:

“Economic growth in France is now stronger than Germany and - ironically - it might be thanks to the Gilets Jaunes

This is what the Yellow Vest movement has become in just one year. RN leader Marine Le Pen has ditched the demand of a Frexit from the Euro bloc. But her party still holds a majority seat in the EU that is demanding reforms and scaling back EU power on states. If they are denied those reforms, they can still rely popular demand.

President Emmanuel Macron agreed with Andrew Marr, that if presented with a simple yes/no response to Frexit, the French public would "probably" vote in favor of a Frexit.

The Gilets Jaunes movement is not holding back. They have made certain that their voice is heard but it is too early to say what gilets jaunes will achieve from here; it could be anything from more tax cuts to social democratic reforms or devolution of power to Frexit.

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